Monday, 07 November 2022

Climate Journal Club - CJC 2022-23

K. C. Armour (2017), Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nature Climate Change (Agostino Meroni)

Dear all, 
we would like to advertise the beginning of the Climate Journal Club (CJC)!
The CJC is a regular meeting open to the whole DISAT community. During the meetings, a seminal paper in the Climate Science or a section of the IPCC AR6 (6th Assessment Report) is presented to stimulate the discussion among participants.
All professors, researchers, technicians, postdocs, PhDs and master students who work on the broad topic of Climate are invited to participate in the meetings and to consider giving a presentation. We remind all PhD students that the active participation to the CJC, with a presentation, will grant them 2CFUs.
The meetings will be in presence, every two weeks, on Mondays, between 11:00 and 12:30 in the meeting room at the ground floor of U1 (U1-T010). More details will follow on the first meeting, scheduled for Monday November 7th: SAVE THE DATE!
We invite who is interested in receiving news and updates on the CJC to register to the e-learning course "Climate Journal Club" and/or to send and email to one of the following addresses:;
Thanks, see you soon,
the CJC team: Fabien, Pietro, Mara e Agostino

lunedì 7 novembre 2022, ore 11 - U1 sala riunioni piano terra (T010)
Agostino N. Meroni will present the paper: K. C. Armour (2017), Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks, Nature Climate Change,
whose abstract reads:
Global energy budget constraints suggest an equilibrium climate sensitivity around 2 °C, which is lower than estimates from palaeoclimate reconstructions, process-based observational analyses and global climate model simulations. A key assumption is that the climate sensitivity inferred today also applies to the distant future. Yet, global climate models robustly show that feedbacks vary over time, with a strong tendency for climate sensitivity to increase as equilibrium is approached. Here I consider the implications of inconstant climate feedbacks for energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity. I find that the long-term value of climate sensitivity is, on average, 26% above that inferred during transient warming within global climate models, with a larger discrepancy when climate sensitivity is high. Moreover, model values of climate sensitivity inferred during transient warming are found to be consistent with energy budget observations, indicating that the models are not overly sensitive. Using model-based estimates of how climate feedbacks will change in the future, in conjunction with recent energy budget constraints, produces a current best estimate of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2.9 °C (1.7–7.1 °C, 90% confidence). These findings suggest that climate sensitivity estimated from global energy budget constraints is in agreement with values derived from other methods and simulated by global climate models.
The paper is also available on the elearning page at the following link
Feel free to invite any colleagues that might be interested,
see you soon,
the CJC team